2000-01 NCAA Seeding Correlation

2000-01 NCAA Tournament Seedings & Results
(data prior to NCAA Tournament)

The table below shows the predicted rank of the top 44 teams (11 seeds) which were selected to the NCAA tournament. The purpose is to compare various polls and ratings systems to see which method is most accurate in predicting the seeds the NCAA committee determined. Each rating system (RPI, Sagarin, & Massey Rating Systems along with the Associated Press sportswriters and ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll) was taken and the rank of each team was assigned to the teams which made the tournament. This data was then regressed against the average ranking a team of that particular seed would be expected to earn.

So for example, a number one seed would be expected to be one of the top four teams in the tournament. They thus would have an average ranking of (1 + 2 + 3 + 4)/4 = 10/4 = 2.5. This approximation is used because it is generally unknown how the NCAA committee ranked teams within each seed.

The data was regressed and a measure of the error between the predicted and actual rank was determined by using the r-squared function (rsq). For those unfamiliar with this function, rsq can vary between 0 and 1.0, with the higher value indicating a better fit. Because each team is being regressed against an average ranking (and thus there are natural errors introduced), the very best regression that can be achieved is not an r-squared of 1.0 (which corresponds to zero error) but a lower value, shown at the bottom of the table. The r-square of each model was normalized to that reduced value.

The plot below the table shows the difference between the predicted and actual seedings. A perfect fit would be a straight line through the center of the graph from the bottom left to the top right.

NCAA
Seed
NCAA
Seed #
Team   RPI # AP # ESPN/
USA #
Massey
Ranking
Sagarin
Ranking
Result
1 2.5 Stanford   2 2 2 2 2 2.00
1 2.5 Duke   1 1 1 1 1 1.00
1 2.5 Illinois   6 4 6 5 5 5.20
1 2.5 Michigan State   3 3 3 3 3 3.00
2 6.5 North Carolina   4 6 5 4 6 5.00
2 6.5 Arizona   8 5 4 6 4 5.40
2 6.5 Iowa State   13 10 9 13 13 11.60
2 6.5 Kentucky   10 9 10 8 8 9.00
3 10.5 Boston College   5 7 7 7 11 7.40
3 10.5 Maryland   22 11 11 14 10 13.60
3 10.5 Mississippi   7 14 13 12 15 12.20
3 10.5 Florida   17 8 8 9 7 9.80
4 14.5 UCLA   11 15 18 15 17 15.20
4 14.5 Indiana   16 20 21 19 18 18.80
4 14.5 Oklahoma   15 13 14 10 16 13.60
4 14.5 Kansas   12 12 12 11 9 11.20
5 18.5 Ohio State   34 26 26 25 26 27.40
5 18.5 Cincinnati   31 27 31 30 28 29.40
5 18.5 Syracuse   18 17 16 34 42 25.40
5 18.5 Virginia   33 16 15 17 14 19.00
6 22.5 Southern California   21 35 36 24 22 27.60
6 22.5 Wisconsin   19 25 24 23 21 22.40
6 22.5 Notre Dame   25 19 19 50 40 30.60
6 22.5 Texas   9 18 17 16 20 16.00
7 26.5 Iowa   26 24 25 40 29 28.80
7 26.5 Arkansas   41 28 54 29 27 35.80
7 26.5 Penn State   24 41 42 35 38 36.00
7 26.5 Wake Forest   30 23 22 20 12 21.40
8 30.5 Georgia   27 56 39 49 41 42.40
8 30.5 Georgia Tech   39 39 35 38 33 36.80
8 30.5 California   35 50 54 28 23 38.00
8 30.5 Tennessee   14 31 30 21 19 23.00
9 34.5 Missouri   47 56 54 54 49 52.00
9 34.5 St. Josephs   36 22 23 18 24 24.60
9 34.5 Fresno State   20 30 27 26 25 25.60
9 34.5 Charlotte   48 37 37 36 35 38.60
10 38.5 Creighton   23 36 35 27 34 31.00
10 38.5 Georgetown   42 21 20 44 37 32.80
10 38.5 Butler   29 46 43 22 39 35.80
10 38.5 Providence   28 33 38 41 32 34.40
11 42.5 Oklahoma State   49 43 46 51 48 47.40
11 42.5 Georgia State   32 32 32 45 58 39.80
11 42.5 Temple   38 40 54 33 30 39.00
11 42.5 Xavier   44 46 46 31 31 39.60
                   
rsq 0.9739 top 6 seeds   0.526 0.801 0.742 0.664 0.674 0.824
rsq 0.9922 top 11 seeds   0.662 0.718 0.701 0.633 0.682 0.808
  Ideal   Normalized RPI # AP # ESPN/
USA #
Massey Sagarin Average
          * *      

* Note - Others Receiving Votes were included, teams without any votes were given the next open rank number. When multiple vote numbers were present, the lowest rank was given.


ChartObject Predicted vs. Actual
NCAA Seeding
(2000-01 Season)

Preliminary Conclusions

A second aspect of these models to consider is how well they did in terms of predicting which teams would make the tournament and which ones wouldn't. Below is a table listing the highest rated teams which did not make the NCAA's field.

Cut-Off Teams   RPI # AP # ESPN/
USA #
Massey Sagarin
  Southern Mississippi 53 54   43 43
  Alabama 51 34 29 47 36
  Pepperdine       52 56
  Richmond 43 53 50 53 53
  Wyoming       55  
  Texas El-Paso     45 56  
  UC Irvine     51 57  
  Mississippi State 40     58 45
  Villanova 45     60  
  Seton Hall   48      
  Purdue         50
  Tulsa         51
  Auburn 57       52
  South Carolina 60       54
  Utah 50       55
  Connecticut 54       57
  Wyoming 58       59
  New Mexico 52        
  Pittsburgh 56        
             
Lowest Team Left Out   40 34 29 43 36
Number of Teams Included   All 55 53 All All
Number of Cut-Off in top 40   1 1 1 0 1
Number of Cut-Off in top 44   2 1 1 1 2
Number of Cut-Off in top 50   4 2 2 2 4
Number of Cut-Off in top 53   7 3 4 4 7
Number of Cut-Off in top 60   12 4 4 9 12
             
    RPI # AP # ESPN/
USA #
Massey Sagarin

Preliminary Conclusions

Last Updated March 14, 2001

Return to Kentucky Wildcat Basketball Page or RPI Page.

Please send comments to Jon Scott